The Coming Storm

It's been a rainy and windy weekend here. It reminded me of this submission to The Agonist on 11/16/10. I was fearful that a disasterous Christmas shopping season would spell the end of the government efforts to "save the economy". As it turns out..., I was as wrong about that as the weather predicters were about their storm warning.


The Coming Storm

Here on the Quillayute Prairie the rain is coming down…, sideways. We have a steady 12 mph SE wind with gusts up to 27 according to the National Weather Service report…, with worse to come.

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN PUSH ONSHORE LATE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM AND BOOST THE COASTAL WINDS LATER MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CASCADES COULD DRIVE RIVERS IN THOSE AREAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE OLYMPICS MONDAY.

I take solace in the fact that weather men are far from reliable prophets…, especially government prophets. Well…, all I can say is…, if the forecast is correct the ducks will be swimming up to the front porch for dinner. The little pond is already backing up toward the barnyard…, but we are in no danger of any real damage causing flood. The ducks love it…, the dogs and horses…, not so much. I may not love it as much as the ducks…, but there is nothing like a good storm to clean out the cobwebs and get some juices flowing…, if you are ready for it. Julie made coffee last night in case the power was out this morning and we stored up extra water in the bath tub to flush the toilet with. Our water supply is underground in the well and with no power we have no way to get to it with a bucket. Yeah…, if you prepare for the worst it is never as bad as predicted. But when you are unprepared…, it can be damned inconvenient…, or worse The temperature is in the mid-forties so in spite of the fact we have electric heat…, we won’t freeze. If it gets too cold in the house…, we can always go to The Bar. The timber frame shed out back that we call The Bar, is equipped with a propane stove with a reasonably authentic looking fireplace view…, without the other hassles involved with the real thing. Once you have flipped a switch to start a fire you may just swear off ever splitting another arm load of kindling. And if the stove doesn’t provide enough light we can always pump up the old Coleman gas lantern and listen to it’s soft, comforting hiss…, along with the battery powered radio. The thought of it almost makes you wish the power would go out. We really should invest in a gas generator for such “emergencies”. But I fear that Julie would just want to hook it to the TV in the house instead of using it to power the 35 year old Heathkit 1515 stereo receiver in The Bar. I am still the romantic and she is ever so practical.

But…, it isn’t this Storm that I am worried about. It’s The Storm to Come. I have written here previously about a “Crash”. One year seven weeks ago on 9/25/08 I wrote, “The Crash is Coming…, with or without this Bail Out. The Bail Out is just that…, a Bail Out of the fat cat investors that run this country. It will accomplish one thing and one thing only. It will “buy” them time to reposition their portfolios and make money from this coming crash.” Well…, the Bail Out came, the S&P crashed to the 600 level. Do I need to tell you what happened after that? Record bonus for the fat cat investors this year and extended unemployment benefits for us. Not long after the Bail Outs…, the Stimulus started. Seven weeks ago I wrote in “Living on Stimulus” that, “… prior experience tells me that more of the same crap that got us here isn’t going to keep the party going. We have way to far to go for a quick rush to solve the problem. We aren’t going somewhere slowly…, we are going nowhere fast.” Well…, the extension…, and expanding…, of the $8000 mortgage credit is an attempt to keep that first rush alive. Our government is buying up houses so fast for people who have little…, if any…, hope of ever paying them off, that the FHA is already broke. Fannie and Freddy have been broke for a long time. As Denninger is fond of saying, “This is sixth grade math.” And it not just won’t work…, it can’t work. Somewhere along the line I made a comment and referred to a “Cold November Rain” coming in terms of our financial outlook. I meant that late in November we will get a pretty good picture of what the retail outlook is for the Christmas shopping season. I think it is going to drown a lot of “green shoots”. I don’t see consumers coming out of their cocoons. Many of the State budgets cuts of last summer are just now working their way through the system in terms of actual layoffs. Over 250 layoffs were announced in my agency just last week…, and the anxiety I see on the faces around me is frightening. We had been warned that this Storm was coming…, and are being warned that the Storm will likely continue for the foreseeable future. You just can’t prepare yourself for that kind of Storm.

I don’t think I am any better prophet than a government weather man.., but I have some common sense. Yeah…, I am ready for today and tomorrow’s natural Coming Storm. The other financial Coming Storm I see ahead…, not so much.

Scott R. November 15, 2009 - 3:23pm